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DON'T BE SHY, CLICK ON THE MAPS!

2016 OVERVIEW

Choropleth & Hotspot Analysis

2016_Choropleth.jpg
2016 Total Hotspot.jpg

In 2016, there were a total of 37,852 reported crimes in Vancouver. Downtown had the highest crime occurrences with 9,853 reported crimes during the whole year. Dunbar-Southlands had the lowest amount of reported crimes with 423 incidents over the year. The choropleth map shades each neighbourhood based on the crime data value for that area. The colours are shaded within the boundary of each region with darker red representing high occurrences of crime rate in that neighbourhood and darker blue representing low occurrences of crime rate in that neighbourhood. There is a single unique crime data assigned to each cell in all the areas on the map. In this way, we can know the distribution of crimes in each single neighbourhood.

 

As for the hotspot analysis map, it "uses vectors to identify locations of statistically significant hotspots and cold spots in the data by aggregating points of occurrence into polygons or converging points that are in proximity to one another based on a calculated distance" (glenbambrick, 2016). The analysis "groups features when similar high or low values are found in a cluster" (glenbambrick, 2016). In this way, we can see the clusters and the concentrations of Vancouver crimes on the map (in this case we added the local area boundaries for comparison).

Crime Type Distribution

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Crime Type and Frequency in Vancouver.pn

The map beside shows the distribution of each crime type in each neighbourhood. Each pie chart represents the proportion of specific crime type committed in each neighbourhood to the total value of reported crime in that neighbourhood in Vancouver. As shown on the map, the navy blue portion of the pie chart represents theft from crime in Vancouver. We can see that theft from crime takes up the biggest proportion of crimes in each of the neighbourhood. In 2016, theft from vehicles was the most common type of crime in Vancouver. The number of reported incidents was 12,815. Homicide was the least reported type of crime. There were 12 reported incidents in 2016. Homicide is represented in a light grey colour on the pie chart. However, the proportion of this reported crime is too small compared to the total value of crimes committed in each neighbourhood, it is not clearly reflected on the pie chart. 

Seasonal Variation

SEASONAL VARIATIONS

2016 Summer

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2016 Summer Overview

During the summer (June to August), there were a total of 10,210 reported crimes. Downtown had the highest occurrences of crimes and the total number of reported crimes was 2,587. Kerrisdale had the least occurrences of crimes and the number of reported crimes was 110. The number of crimes downtown had in summer was 24 times greater than that of Kerrisdale. Both choropleth and hotspot maps present similar results with downtown having the highest number of crimes and Killarney and Kerrisdale having the least occurrences of crimes.

2016_Summer_Hotspot.jpg

2016 Winter

2016_Winter_Choropleth.jpg
2016 Winter Overview

During the winter (December to February), there were a total of 8,754 reported crimes. Similar to summer, downtown also had the highest occurrences of crimes and the total number of reported crimes was 2,319. West Point Grey had the least amount of reported crimes and the reported number was 100. The number of crimes Downtown Vancouver had in winter was 24 times greater than that of West Point Grey.

2016_Winter_Hotspot.jpg

Both maps show that Downtown Vancouver has the highest occurrences of crimes. It also shows that  there is a seasonal difference in the number of crimes committed in Downtown. As seen from the maps, the hot spot confidence level of Downtown in summer was 99% significant while the hot spot confidence level of Downtown in winter was 95% significant, which indicates that there are less crimes in winter than in summer. 

 

As for crime type, theft from vehicles was the most common type of crime in both the winter and summer with 3158 reported incidents during the winter months and 3250 incidents during the summer months. Homicides had the fewest incidents with 3 incidents in winter and 2 in summer. Most crime types had a higher occurrence in summer than winter except for residential break and enter. Only residential break and enter had a higher occurrence in the winter than summer, with 846 reported incidents during the winter months and 714 reported incidents in summer. Also among different types of crime, the number of reported incidents on bike thefts had the increase from winter to summer. There were 1044 bike thefts in summer but only 278 in winter. There were no significant differences for other crime types between the two seasons.

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From this analysis, we can gather that the difference in crime rates could be due to the temperatures and duration of daylight. Higher temperatures, increased daylight, or longer vacations, in the summer, could be reasons for people to spend less time at home. Increased people outside of their homes allow for more thefts and mischief. Being out of the home for a longer period also allows for more break and enters.

Dwelling Cost

DWELLING COST

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The map shows the result of the ordinary least squares regression analysis. There are two variables on the map. The dependent variable is the crime rate while the explanatory variable is the average dwelling cost. From the OLS results, it shows that the p-value of the average dwelling cost is 0.014632. Since the p-value is smaller than 0.05, this means that the average dwelling cost is statistically significant to the crime rate in Vancouver. The relationship of the average dwelling cost is a more statistically significant predictor of the crime rate in that area. The area in red (downtown) shows a standard deviation of greater than 2.5. This means that the areas in red is statistically more significant than the areas in yellow. The dwelling values of downtown is highly likely influencing the crime rate in downtown. 

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The results from the map show an inverse relationship between crime rate and dwelling costs in Vancouver. Areas with high dwelling costs such as Dunbar-Southlands and Shaughnessy with an average dwelling value of $2,695,155.98 have a low crime count; areas with an average dwelling cost such as Renfrew-collingwood and Riley Park with an average dwelling value of $1,382,036.73 have an average crime count;  areas with low dwelling costs such as downtown with an average dwelling cost $798,324.52 have a higher crime rate. Kitsilano sits between areas with lowest to highest crime rates and dwelling value. 

AVERAGE DWELLING VALUE

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$2,695,155.98

 

 

 

$1,382,036.73

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$697,937.64

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$798,324.52

AVERAGE CRIME COUNT

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448

 

 

 

1134

 

 

 

2337

 

 

 

9947

    A R E A

 

blue

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green

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orange

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red

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DEFINITION

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Highest dwelling value and lowest crime rate

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Average dwelling value and

average crime rate

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Lowest dwelling value and above average crime rate

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Low dwelling cost and highest crime rate

 

Areas with a higher density of homes as well as areas with low dwelling values tend to experience more property crimes. This could be due to the lack of enforcements and home securities (e.g. alarms or building security) which make them easier targets. It is highly suggested to increase home security to lower the chances of break and enters. Individuals are also recommended to be more aware of their surroundings and their belongings. Unattended items or valuable items are incentives for thefts. 

Areas with a higher amount of rental homes or short term rentals (e.g. Airbnb) also factor into increased property crimes as people who live in the area or building constantly change. Therefore it is the owner's responsibility to follow the applicant screening criteria and to make sure the residential tenancy agreement is met. Suspicious activity needs to be reported to the police, for your safety and the safety of others. 

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To learn more about home security, visit this website: 

https://vancouver.ca/police/crime-prevention/for-homes-rental-properties/home-security.html

To learn more about individual safety, visit the following websites: 

https://vancouver.ca/police/crime-prevention/theft-from-auto.html

https://vancouver.ca/police/crime-prevention/for-individuals/personal-safety.html

Sources:

https://glenbambrick.com/2016/01/21/what-is-hotspot-analysis/

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